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بررسی و تبیین استراتژی روسیه برای نظمسازی در قفقاز جنوبی با نگاهی آیندهمحور | ||
جغرافیا و آینده پژوهی منطقهای | ||
دوره 3، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 11، آذر 1404، صفحه 41-61 اصل مقاله (1.45 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30466/grfs.2025.56216.1125 | ||
نویسنده | ||
حمید درج* | ||
دانشآموخته دکتری روابط بینالملل، دانشگاه گیلان، رشت، ایران. | ||
چکیده | ||
پس از فروپاشی اتحاد جماهیر شوروی در سال 1991، روسیه با هدف حفظ تمامیت ارضی خود و جلوگیری از فروپاشی دوباره با اتخاذ راهبردها و توسل به ابزارهای مختلف، در راستای ایجاد پایگاههای نظامی و گسترش نفوذ سیاسی در کشورهای قفقاز جنوبی گام برداشته است. همچنین روسیه با سرمایهگذاری و حضور در معادلات انرژی و کریدورهای راهبردی در منطقه هماکنون بهعنوان یک قدرت برتر و پرنفوذ در قفقاز جنوبی عمل میکند. در این میان، مقامات روس درصدد حفظ حوزه نفوذ خود در لایههای قدرت در قفقاز جنوبی برآمدهاند که این امر ضمن حفظ سهم کرملین از ساختار قدرت در منطقه، کمک شایانی به توسعه جاهطلبیها و کسب جایگاه هژمونی آن در صفحه شطرنج اوراسیایی خواهد نمود. پژوهش حاضر با رویکردی آیندهپژوهانه در پی پاسخ به این سؤال اصلی است که روسیه برای نظمسازی در قفقاز جنوبی چه راهبردی را دنبال میکند؟ فرضیه قابل طرح این است که پس از فروپاشی شوروی و کاهش قدرت روسیه در قفقاز جنوبی، کرملین با هدف حفظ حاکمیت ارضی خود از طریق عملیات نظم سازی و ایجاد ترتیبات سیاسی، اقتصادی، فرهنگی و نظامی، نفوذ قابلتوجهی در قفقاز جنوبی پیدا کرده که این امر روسیه را به قدرت برتر منطقه تبدیل کرده است. در این میان، مقامات مسکو سعی در حفظ نفوذ و قدرت هژمونی خود در قفقاز جنوبی دارند که این موضوع ضمن تأمین و تضمین منافع آنها در منطقه، به روسیه امکان میدهد تا بر تصمیمات دولتهای منطقه تأثیر بگذارد و از این طریق آینده نظم و معادلات قفقاز جنوبی را به نفع کرملین و به ضرر بازیگران رقیب حفظ نماید. این پژوهش، ماهیتی کیفی داشته و از نظر روش اجرا از نوع توصیفی-تبیینی است که با رویکرد آیندهپژوهی نگاشته شده است. روش گردآوری اطلاعات و دادههای تحقیق نیز کتابخانهای است. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
آمریکا؛ روسیه؛ قفقاز جنوبی؛ قلمروگستری؛ نظمسازی | ||
مراجع | ||
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