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آیندهپژوهی مهاجرت در استان آذربایجان شرقی با رویکرد سناریونگاری | ||
جغرافیا و آینده پژوهی منطقهای | ||
دوره 3، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 10، شهریور 1404، صفحه 52-68 اصل مقاله (790.81 K) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30466/grfs.2025.55937.1087 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
ابوالفضل قنبری* 1؛ داود بهبودی2؛ طاهره السادات موسوی3 | ||
1استاد گروه پژوهشهای جغرافیای دانشگاه تبریز. | ||
2استاد گروه توسعه اقتصادی و برنامهریزی، دانشگاه تبریز. | ||
3کارشناسی ارشد برنامهریزی آمایش سرزمین، دانشگاه تبریز. | ||
چکیده | ||
مهاجرت بهعنوان یکی از مهمترین پدیدههای جمعیتشناختی، نقشی تعیینکننده در تحول ساختارهای اجتماعی، اقتصادی و جغرافیایی ایفا میکند. در دهههای اخیر، جابهجایی گسترده جمعیت به دلایل متنوع، از جمله عوامل اقتصادی، زیستمحیطی و اجتماعی، به یکی از چالشهای اساسی مدیریت جمعیت و برنامهریزی منطقهای تبدیلشده است. این چالشها، نیاز به تحلیل آیندهنگرانه و تدوین راهکارهای مؤثر را برای بهبود شرایط و کاهش پیامدهای منفی آشکارتر کردهاند. در همین راستا، پژوهش حاضر با هدف آیندهپژوهی مهاجرت در استان آذربایجان شرقی و تدوین سناریوهای عملیاتی جهت مدیریت و برنامهریزی مطلوب انجام شده است. این تحقیق از نوع کاربردی و توصیفی-تحلیلی بوده و با بهرهگیری از رویکرد آیندهپژوهی، دادههای خود را از طریق روشهای اسنادی و پیمایشی گردآوری کرده است. تحلیل این دادهها با استفاده از تکنیک دلفی و ابزارهایی مانند ماتریس اثرات متقاطع و نرمافزار سناریو ویزارد صورت گرفته است. جامعه آماری این پژوهش شامل 20 نفر از کارشناسان برنامهریزی شهری و منطقهای استان میباشد. بر اساس نتایج بهدستآمده، 42 عامل بهعنوان مؤثرترین عوامل مهاجرت استان شناسایی شد. نتایج حاصل از پژوهش بیانگر این است که با استفاده از روش میکمک، ۱۳ عامل کلیدی نظیر نرخ بالای بیکاری، نبود منابع آبی پایدار، کاهش جمعیت روستایی و ضعف شبکه جادهای بهعنوان پیشرانهای اصلی شناسایی شدند. در ادامه، بر مبنای این پیشرانها، سه سناریوی قوی، ضعیف و باورکردنی برای آینده مهاجرت در استان تدوین گردید. تحلیل نهایی نشان داد که سناریوهای باورکردنی، به دلیل تعادل میان مطلوبیت و قابلیت تحقق، مبنای برنامهریزی قرار میگیرند. در راستای دستیابی به این سناریوها، شناسایی و تقویت عوامل کلیدی و ارائه راهکارهای مناسب، از جمله توسعه زیرساختها و کاهش چالشهای اقتصادی، ضروری است. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
آذربایجان شرقی؛ آیندهپژوهی؛ سناریو ویزارد؛ مهاجرت؛ Micmac | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 121 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 47 |