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آیندهپژوهی بازآفرینی بافتهای ناکارآمد در مناطق شهری (موردمطالعه: شهر فردیس، استان البرز) | ||
جغرافیا و آینده پژوهی منطقهای | ||
دوره 2، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 6، آذر 1403، صفحه 110-124 اصل مقاله (1.38 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30466/grfs.2024.55772.1075 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
سعید ملکی1؛ زری حسنی* 2؛ پریا خوشنود مقدم3 | ||
1استاد گروه جغرافیا و برنامهریزی شهری، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران | ||
2کارشناسی ارشد گروه جغرافیای انسانی، دانشکده علوم جغرافیایی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران | ||
3پژوهشگر دکتری گروه شهرسازی، دانشکده معماری و شهرسازی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، قزوین، ایران | ||
چکیده | ||
از جمله مسائلی که در شهر فردیس مشهود است و طرح بازآفرینی جامع و آیندهمحوری را برای آن میطلبد، وجود بافت فرسوده و سکونتگاه غیررسمی است که با توجه به تعداد جمعیت آن، از تراکم فیزیکی قابلتوجهی برخوردار است. جامعه آماری پژوهش، ساکنان شهر فردیس است و برای تعیین حجم نمونه، تعداد 30 نفر از کارشناسان و متخصصان به ترتیب الف) برای تدقیق پیشرانها با استفاده از روش دلفی، ب) تکمیل ماتریس اثرات متقاطع و ورود آن به نرمافزار Micmac و پ) تعیین سطح اهمیت و عدم قطعیت عوامل کلیدی برگزیده شدند. روش دلفی فرایندی ساختار یافته برای جمعآوری و طبقهبندی دانش موجود در نزد متخصصان است. در تحلیل اثرات متقاطع، روابط متقابل در میان خرده سیستمهای گوناگون بررسی میشود. بر اساس دادههای نرمافزار، مسئله مالکیت با امتیاز 73 بهعنوان اثرگذارترین و آشفتگی سیما و منظر با امتیاز 77 بهمنزله اثرپذیریت نیروهای پیشران مشخص شدند. عوامل کلیدی تحقیق برای ایجاد منطق سناریو عبارتاند از مسئله مالکیت، عدم تطبیق با طرحهای توسعه شهری، فقدان نظارت شهرداری، سطح اقتصادی پایین، اتخاذ تصمیمهای غیراصولی، فقدان تجانس در میان پارسلهای موجود، عدم نگرش جامع به منطقه، ارگانیکی بودن بافت، نبود طرح منسجم توسعه بافت. با توجه به سطح اهمیت بازآفرینی برای بافت ناکارآمد شهر فردیس و نظر به رویکرد آیندهپژوهی در پژوهش، سه سناریو با محوریت مسئله مالکیت، سطح اقتصادی پایین و نبود طرح منسجم توسعه بافت تدوین میشود که در این میان سناریوی 1 بهعنوان مطلوبترین و سناریوی 3 بهعنوان بحرانیترین مورد برای محدوده مطالعاتی در شهر فردیس موردتوجه است. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
آیندهپژوهی؛ بافت ناکارآمد؛ بازآفرینی شهری؛ شهر فردیس | ||
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