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آیندهپژوهی نظام سکونتگاهی در مناطق مرزی (نمونه موردی: استان کرمانشاه) | ||
جغرافیا و آینده پژوهی منطقهای | ||
دوره 2، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 4، خرداد 1403، صفحه 1-19 اصل مقاله (1.66 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30466/grfs.2024.55178.1049 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
سید عباس رجائی* 1؛ سید علی بدری1؛ حسین منصوریان1؛ مهدی بابایی2 | ||
1دانشیار گروه جغرافیای انسانی و برنامهریزی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران | ||
2دانشآموخته کارشناسی ارشد آمایش سرزمین، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران | ||
چکیده | ||
در کشور ایران، مناطق مرزی در سطح بسیار پایینتر از نواحی داخلی به لحاظ توسعه قرار دارند؛ بنابراین، حل این مشکلات، نیازمند بهکارگیری رویکردهایی است که با شناخت درست از گذشته و شناسایی قابلیتهای موجود، در جهت ترسیم آیندهی مطلوب گام بردارد. مطالعات آیندهپژوهی بهعنوان یک رویکرد نوین، با تجزیهوتحلیل منابع موجود میتواند نقش اساسی در شکلدهی به آینده ایفا کند. مقالهی حاضر با هدف شناسایی نیروهای پیشران در وضعیت سکونتگاهی استان کرمانشاه برای افق 25 سال آینده انجام شده است. این پژوهش از لحاظ هدف، کاربردی و به لحاظ روش، توصیفی_تحلیلی میباشد. جهت تحلیل پرسشنامه و ماتریس اثرات متقاطع از نرمافزار میک مک(MicMac) استفادهشده است. نتایج حاصل از تحقیق نشان میدهد که نیروهای پیشران مؤثر بر وضعیت آینده سکونتگاهی استان کرمانشاه شامل 21 مورد هستند که با نظرسنجی از خبرگان بهدستآمده است، تأثیرگذارترین متغیرها در آینده نظام سکونتگاهی استان کرمانشاه شامل متغیرهایی هستند که نگرش در این متغیرها میتواند موجب تغییر در آرایش شبکههای سکونتگاهی استان شود. متغیرهای، مجاورت با مرز بین المللی، شبکه حملونقل ریلی و جادهای، وجود بازارچههای مرزی در دسته متغیرهای با تأثیرگذاری بالا قرارگرفتهاند. گروهی دیگر از متغیرها، با عنوان متغیرهای تأثیرپذیر شناسایی شدهاند که شامل وضعیت اشتغال در مناطق مرزی و فواصل بین سکونتگاهها میباشد. این نوع از متغیرها تأثیرگذاری چندانی ندارند ولی تأثیرپذیری بالایی دارند اما تأثیرگذاری آنها در وضعیتهای آینده بستگی به نحوه عمل دیگر متغیرها دارد. همچنین پنج وضعیت محتمل برای آینده نظام سکونتی استان شناساییشده که احتمال وقوع هرکدام بستگی به توجه یا عدم توجه به هر یک از پیشرانها دارد. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
آیندهپژوهی؛ کرمانشاه؛ مرز؛ نظام سکونتگاهی | ||
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