دانشگاه ارومیه

 آمار

تعداد نشریات14
تعداد شماره‌ها208
تعداد مقالات1,965
تعداد مشاهده مقاله3,435,832
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله2,782,633
Najmi Gharehgheshlaghi, Akram, Khalili, Keivan, Mohammadi, Hanieh. (1405). Structural Breaks and Reversible Temporal Regimes in Urban Water Consumption: A Comparative Analysis of Salmas City, Iran. پژوهش های میوه کاری, (), -. doi: 10.30466/jwec.2026.57513.1015
Akram Najmi Gharehgheshlaghi; Keivan Khalili; Hanieh Mohammadi. "Structural Breaks and Reversible Temporal Regimes in Urban Water Consumption: A Comparative Analysis of Salmas City, Iran". پژوهش های میوه کاری, , , 1405, -. doi: 10.30466/jwec.2026.57513.1015
Najmi Gharehgheshlaghi, Akram, Khalili, Keivan, Mohammadi, Hanieh. (1405). 'Structural Breaks and Reversible Temporal Regimes in Urban Water Consumption: A Comparative Analysis of Salmas City, Iran', پژوهش های میوه کاری, (), pp. -. doi: 10.30466/jwec.2026.57513.1015
Najmi Gharehgheshlaghi, Akram, Khalili, Keivan, Mohammadi, Hanieh. Structural Breaks and Reversible Temporal Regimes in Urban Water Consumption: A Comparative Analysis of Salmas City, Iran. پژوهش های میوه کاری, 1405; (): -. doi: 10.30466/jwec.2026.57513.1015

Structural Breaks and Reversible Temporal Regimes in Urban Water Consumption: A Comparative Analysis of Salmas City, Iran

Water and Environmental Challenges
مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده، انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 04 مهر 1405
نوع مقاله: Research Article
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30466/jwec.2026.57513.1015
نویسندگان
Akram Najmi Gharehgheshlaghi1؛ Keivan Khalili* 2؛ Hanieh Mohammadi3
1MSc. Student, Environmental Engineering, Saba University, Urmia, Iran
2Urmia Lake Research Institute, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran
3MSc in Water Resources Engineering, Urmia University
چکیده
Ignoring structural changes in urban water consumption can undermine forecasting accuracy. Since most methods assume only permanent shifts, this study examines both persistent and reversible consumption regimes in Salmas City (2004–2025) using Bai–Perron, Pettitt, SNHT, and Markov-switching models in R. Bai–Perron, run under mean- and population-based specifications, served as the primary framework, with Pettitt and SNHT providing independent validation and Markov-switching testing whether regimes could reverse over time. Water consumption rose 149%, far outpacing the 44.7% growth in population. All Bai–Perron specifications identified 2015 as the primary breakpoint, closely matching Pettitt (2014) and SNHT (2015). The population-based model also suggested a possible second breakpoint in 2021, though this wasn't confirmed by the other tests. Unlike Bai–Perron's permanent breaks, the Markov-switching model's smoothed probabilities suggest the series leaned toward a lower-consumption regime during 2011–2017 before shifting back — though with only 22 observations, this is best read as a statistically inferred pattern rather than a confirmed change, and one that depends on including population as a covariate. Overall, relying on a single method risks an incomplete picture of these dynamics.
کلیدواژه‌ها
Bai–Perron؛ Markov switching؛ Structural break؛ temporal regimes؛ water consumption
آمار
تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 3