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تاثیرات تغییر اقلیم و سیل در آسیای جنوبی: یک مرور نظاممند | ||
| جغرافیا و آینده پژوهی منطقهای | ||
| دوره 3، شماره ویژه - شماره پیاپی 13، اسفند 1404، صفحه 51-63 اصل مقاله (428.89 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30466/grfs.2026.57320.1255 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| Asma Khan Kakar؛ Zakaria Shah* | ||
| Department of Geography and Regional Planning, University of Balochistan, Quetta, Pakistan | ||
| چکیده | ||
| زمینه پژوهش: جنوب آسیا در زمره آسیبپذیرترین مناطق جهان در برابر ریسک سیلاب قرار دارد. میلیونها نفر که در حوضههای رودخانهای مشترک زندگی میکنند، به دلیل افزایش فراوانی و شدت رویدادهای جوی فاجعهبار (که عمدتاً ناشی از تغییرات اقلیمی جهانی است)، با خطرات قریبالوقوعی در زیرساختها، تولیدات کشاورزی، کل اقتصاد و معیشتهای اجتماعی-اقتصادی خود مواجه هستند. اهداف پژوهش: هدف اصلی این مرور سیستماتیک، ارزیابی و گردآوری مجموعه پژوهشهای انجام شده در زمینه اثرات تغییرات اقلیمی جهانی و سیلابهای رخداده در مرزهای کشورهای جنوب آسیا است. روششناسی: یک تحلیل سیستماتیک مطابق با دستورالعملهای «پریزما» (PRISMA) و با استفاده از پایگاههای داده کامپیوتری، از طریق جستجوی واژگانی نظیر «تغییر اقلیم»، «دما»، «گرمایش جهانی»، «بارش» و «رطوبت» انجام شد. در این رویکرد، پس از بررسی ۸۰ عنوان و چکیده، ۶۰ مقاله با متن کامل از نظر واجد شرایط بودن مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفتند. در نهایت، ۵۰ مقاله داوریشده (Peer-reviewed) که بهطور ویژه به بررسی اثرات سیل و تغییرات اقلیمی در کشورهای جنوب آسیا پرداخته بودند، برای این مرور کیفی انتخاب شدند. یافتهها: کشورهای جنوب آسیا، بهویژه پاکستان، بنگلادش و هند، شاهد افزایش فراوانی، شدت و گستره جغرافیایی رویدادهای سیل شدید هستند؛ در حالی که نپال و سریلانکا نیز با ریسکهای نوظهوری در این زمینه مواجهاند. اگرچه سیلهای گذشته در محدوده معمولِ «تغییرپذیری اقلیمی» قرار داشتند، اما تغییر اقلیمِ ناشی از فعالیتهای انسانی، چرخههای موسمی (Monsoon) شدیدی را تقویت کرده است که منجر به خسارات شدید به تولید برنج، زیرساختها و معیشت روستایی میشود. نتیجهگیری: افزایش بلایای سیل، معیشت میلیونها نفر و اقتصاد کشورهای جنوب آسیا را بهشدت تحت تأثیر منفی قرار داده است. از آنجایی که اکثر کشورهای جنوب آسیا دارای حوضههای رودخانهای وسیع و مشترک هستند، تدوین و اجرای هماهنگِ استراتژیهای انطباق (Adaptation strategies) امری ضروری است. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| تغییر اقلیم؛ سیلاب؛ آسیا؛ جنوب شرق آسیا؛ Monsoon | ||
| مراجع | ||
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