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آیندهپژوهی شهر ایرانی- اسلامی تبریز با استفاده از تحلیل ساختاری (MICMAC) و سناریونگاری | ||
| جغرافیا و آینده پژوهی منطقهای | ||
| مقاله 4، دوره 4، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 15، آذر 1405، صفحه 61-81 اصل مقاله (1.22 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30466/grfs.2026.56629.1163 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| هادی حکیمی* 1؛ معصومه آدمی2 | ||
| 1دانشیار گروه آموزشی برنامهریزی شهری ، دانشکده برنامهریزی و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه تبریز ، تبریز، ایران. | ||
| 2دانشجوی دکتری گروه آموزشی برنامهریزی شهری ، دانشکده برنامهریزی و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه تبریز ، تبریز، ایران. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| شهر تبریز بهعنوان مهمترین قطب سیاسی، اقتصادی و فرهنگی شمالغرب ایران، در سالهای اخیر با چالشهای فزایندهای در حوزه مدیریت شهری و برنامهریزی آیندهمحور مواجه شده است. در شرایطی که تحولات سریع اجتماعی، اقتصادی، فناورانه و زیستمحیطی موجب افزایش عدمقطعیتها در مسیر توسعه شهری میشود، بهرهگیری از رویکرد آیندهپژوهی میتواند زمینه شناسایی پیشرانهای اثرگذار و طراحی سناریوهای واقعبینانه برای هدایت آینده شهر را فراهم آورد. این پژوهش در چارچوب پارادایم پوزیتیویستی و با رویکرد کمی انجام شده و با ترکیب روش دلفی و تحلیل ساختاری متقاطع (MICMAC)، به شناسایی و تحلیل روابط میان عوامل مؤثر بر آینده شهر تبریز پرداخته است. بر اساس نظر خبرگان، ۱۷ متغیر کلیدی استخراج و در قالب ماتریس ۱۷×۱۷ مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. نتایج MICMAC نشان میدهد که ساختار سیستم شهری تبریز از پویایی و ناپایداری بالایی برخوردار است و شدت تعامل میان متغیرها قابلتوجه میباشد. همچنین متغیرهای «حکمرانی شهری»، «الگوی توسعه شهری»، «اقتصاد شهری»، «نوآوری»، «فناوریهای هوشمند (ICT)» و «اصول اسلامی» در ناحیه اثرگذاری و اثرپذیری بالا قرار گرفتند و بهعنوان پیشرانهای راهبردی آینده تبریز شناسایی شدند. این پیشرانها بیشترین نقش را در تغییر وضعیت سیستم داشته و جهتگیری کلان سناریوهای آینده را تعیین میکنند. در ادامه، با استفاده از نرمافزار Scenario Wizard سه سناریوی قوی، ضعیف و باورکردنی تدوین گردید و سناریوی سازگار بهعنوان سناریوی مطلوب انتخاب شد. نتایج سناریونگاری نشان میدهد که تحقق آیندهای پایدار و مطلوب برای تبریز در گرو تقویت حکمرانی کارآمد، توسعه زیرساختهای فناورانه، رشد اقتصاد شهری، ارتقای ظرفیتهای نوآورانه و توجه همزمان به ساختارهای اجتماعی و فرهنگی است. این یافتهها میتواند مبنای تدوین سیاستهای آیندهنگر و برنامهریزی شهری کارآمد در راستای دستیابی به الگوی توسعه پایدار شهر تبریز قرار گیرد. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| آیندهپژوهی؛ تبریز؛ توسعه پایدار؛ شهرهای ایرانی اسلامی؛ سناریونگاری؛ میک مک | ||
| مراجع | ||
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